Thursday 25th January 2007; 9:00 am (East African Standard Time).....Stanbic Uganda started trading shares on the Uganda Stock Exchange. Well, in the first 1 hour and 15 minutes of trading, the share price was up 178% from 70 shs to 195shs.
To put it into perspective, an investor who bought Ushs 1 Billion worth of shares has just seen his investment grow to Ushs 2.78 Billion..... woohuh.
Well, at this rate, it is the proverbial up, up and away...untill, i daringly but humbly predict, a ceiling price of about 350 ushs, after which sanity will reign in the upward trend.
A little background:
According to the New Vision ( 17th Jan 2007), Number of Ugandan institutions' applications were 407 (value Ushs 30.7 Billion), and foreign: 1,463 (value Ushs 82.3 Billion). Number of Ugandan individual investors applied: 15,488 (value Ushs 41.1 Billion) and foreign investors: 20,091 (value: Ushs 56.1 Billion). Total applications were worth Ushs 210 Billion.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Thursday, January 11, 2007
A Fish tale to Ponder!
2007 promises to be one full of challenges for Ugandan Tilapia and frozen Nile perch exporters to the EU:
1) Nile perch production seems to be waning. Catch from the lake is increasingly smaller, the kind that wont make fillet for the market. Besides, the local market doesnt like Nile perch too...
2) Nile perch prices in the EU are beggining to wane, it is suspected, mainly due to bad press...
3) Nile perch resource seems to be under strain in Lake Victoria while tilapia stocks are growing in the lake.
According to the publication sea food international, i quote "According to biologists, we may be seeing the development of a cycle in which tilapia stocks grow, which in turn provides more food for the carnivorous Nile perch. The Nile perch stocks will then increase until there is too little tilapia, and then the Nile perch will decline, and so on."
Interesting trends, since this may offer a temporary reprieve from the dangers of over-fishing in Lake Victoria. Uganda's exports of fish have reached phenomenal levels (over US$ 105 million) though they are still not comparable to larger fishing nations like vietnam (who have cultured our tilapia and conquered the market....)
Again, according to Seafood International, i quote, "US imports of tilapia continue to grow rapidly. According to US import statistics, the country’s imports of tilapia grew by over 25% during the first half of 2006 to 74,000 tonnes. At the same time, the average import price for tilapia increased by $0.03 per lb to $1.39 per lb, or $3.06 per kg."
Imports of frozen fillets into the USA grew particularly strongly; up 47% to 33,400 tonnes. Imports of whole frozen tilapia also grew in the first half of the year; the increase was 18% by volume and an amazing 48% by value, as prices for whole frozen tilapia have increased significantly.
Most of the whole frozen fish is supplied by China and Taiwan.
The bottom line, Asian exporters are moving aggressively into the market, while African producers struggle to catch up! ... this, in my opinion, leaves alot of Food for thought!!!
NB: italiscised text fully quoted from Seafood International
1) Nile perch production seems to be waning. Catch from the lake is increasingly smaller, the kind that wont make fillet for the market. Besides, the local market doesnt like Nile perch too...
2) Nile perch prices in the EU are beggining to wane, it is suspected, mainly due to bad press...
3) Nile perch resource seems to be under strain in Lake Victoria while tilapia stocks are growing in the lake.
According to the publication sea food international, i quote "According to biologists, we may be seeing the development of a cycle in which tilapia stocks grow, which in turn provides more food for the carnivorous Nile perch. The Nile perch stocks will then increase until there is too little tilapia, and then the Nile perch will decline, and so on."
Interesting trends, since this may offer a temporary reprieve from the dangers of over-fishing in Lake Victoria. Uganda's exports of fish have reached phenomenal levels (over US$ 105 million) though they are still not comparable to larger fishing nations like vietnam (who have cultured our tilapia and conquered the market....)
Again, according to Seafood International, i quote, "US imports of tilapia continue to grow rapidly. According to US import statistics, the country’s imports of tilapia grew by over 25% during the first half of 2006 to 74,000 tonnes. At the same time, the average import price for tilapia increased by $0.03 per lb to $1.39 per lb, or $3.06 per kg."
Imports of frozen fillets into the USA grew particularly strongly; up 47% to 33,400 tonnes. Imports of whole frozen tilapia also grew in the first half of the year; the increase was 18% by volume and an amazing 48% by value, as prices for whole frozen tilapia have increased significantly.
Most of the whole frozen fish is supplied by China and Taiwan.
The bottom line, Asian exporters are moving aggressively into the market, while African producers struggle to catch up! ... this, in my opinion, leaves alot of Food for thought!!!
NB: italiscised text fully quoted from Seafood International
Tuesday, January 9, 2007
Southern Sudan, a market to die for - Prices going ga ga!!
The mainstream Ugandan media reported on significant events in 2006, mostly political events. In my view, they missed quite a few glaring events, and very exciting ones at that, especially on the economic front.
For the 6th straight year, trade with the world (mostly the EU and COMESA) continued to grow. Uganda’s exports of goods are estimated at US$ 1.3 billion, up from US$ 1.01 billion (including informal cross border trade). Ugandans in the Diaspora sent back home, US$ 700 million in remittances (… I know, insignificant compared to the Philippines!).
The Southern Sudan market continued to grow in leaps and bounds. Despite the insecurity that cropped up mid-year, in the year 2006, this market is expected to grow by an average of about 60 - 70% in 2007. It has grown from US$ 9,1 million to US$ 50.4 million in 2005. This market, grew by an average of 72% over the period 2001 to 2005.
Today, [the BBC reports] the Government of Southern Sudan may begin the long awaited introduction of the Sudanese pound (incidentally, the main medium of exchange has been the Uganda Shs, Kenya Shs, and the US$.). This is projected to affect our exports negatively in the short term, but after currency stability kicks in, the current rate of export growth is projected to continue in the long term. Southern Sudan still lacks adequate infrastructure and institutions (Cement and building materials will continue to enjoy significant demand in the market)
But the prices are staggering. Food prices in Southern Sudan; a pineapple: US$ 5 - 8, a bottle of mineral water: US$ 3 to 5, a bunch of apple bananas: US$ 3 - 5 etc. The impact of this price differential is being felt back in Uganda. Exporters have shifted focus to the better-priced markets there, creating a scarcity of essential goods in Uganda (goods ranging from Sugar, soap, and even beef have all experienced price hikes of over 50%. The growing inflation currently observed in the Ugandan economy can partly be explained by all this 'new' money coming into the economy. Indeed, the Uganda shilling continues to grow in strength against the dollar. The central bank will continue to struggle to control inflation this year.....)
Well, what should that translate into? Pressure on industry in Uganda to increase production of essential good to meet increased domestic and regional demand (visible signs in pressure to increase area of cultivated sugarcane, also some contract importers in Southern Sudan are paying farmers in Northern Uganda in advance to grow pineapples on order. Incidentally, a pineapple fetches US$ 20 in Djibouti, this suggests that Sudanese middlemen may be taking advantage of the wide price margins this opportunity offers…..) and an increased import bill for products not produced or manufactured in Uganda.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [I will post something on this later!] exhibits the same trends, high growth trends and increasing demand for consumer goods (exports grew from US$ 8.8 million in 2001 to over US$ 60 million in 2005, excluding informal exports) However, the presidential election held in last year led to a slow down in Uganda's exporting activity. Increased activity is expected to resume after stability kicks in again.
All in all, 2007 promises more records in trade between Uganda and her neighbours…..
For the 6th straight year, trade with the world (mostly the EU and COMESA) continued to grow. Uganda’s exports of goods are estimated at US$ 1.3 billion, up from US$ 1.01 billion (including informal cross border trade). Ugandans in the Diaspora sent back home, US$ 700 million in remittances (… I know, insignificant compared to the Philippines!).
The Southern Sudan market continued to grow in leaps and bounds. Despite the insecurity that cropped up mid-year, in the year 2006, this market is expected to grow by an average of about 60 - 70% in 2007. It has grown from US$ 9,1 million to US$ 50.4 million in 2005. This market, grew by an average of 72% over the period 2001 to 2005.
Today, [the BBC reports] the Government of Southern Sudan may begin the long awaited introduction of the Sudanese pound (incidentally, the main medium of exchange has been the Uganda Shs, Kenya Shs, and the US$.). This is projected to affect our exports negatively in the short term, but after currency stability kicks in, the current rate of export growth is projected to continue in the long term. Southern Sudan still lacks adequate infrastructure and institutions (Cement and building materials will continue to enjoy significant demand in the market)
But the prices are staggering. Food prices in Southern Sudan; a pineapple: US$ 5 - 8, a bottle of mineral water: US$ 3 to 5, a bunch of apple bananas: US$ 3 - 5 etc. The impact of this price differential is being felt back in Uganda. Exporters have shifted focus to the better-priced markets there, creating a scarcity of essential goods in Uganda (goods ranging from Sugar, soap, and even beef have all experienced price hikes of over 50%. The growing inflation currently observed in the Ugandan economy can partly be explained by all this 'new' money coming into the economy. Indeed, the Uganda shilling continues to grow in strength against the dollar. The central bank will continue to struggle to control inflation this year.....)
Well, what should that translate into? Pressure on industry in Uganda to increase production of essential good to meet increased domestic and regional demand (visible signs in pressure to increase area of cultivated sugarcane, also some contract importers in Southern Sudan are paying farmers in Northern Uganda in advance to grow pineapples on order. Incidentally, a pineapple fetches US$ 20 in Djibouti, this suggests that Sudanese middlemen may be taking advantage of the wide price margins this opportunity offers…..) and an increased import bill for products not produced or manufactured in Uganda.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [I will post something on this later!] exhibits the same trends, high growth trends and increasing demand for consumer goods (exports grew from US$ 8.8 million in 2001 to over US$ 60 million in 2005, excluding informal exports) However, the presidential election held in last year led to a slow down in Uganda's exporting activity. Increased activity is expected to resume after stability kicks in again.
All in all, 2007 promises more records in trade between Uganda and her neighbours…..
Tuesday, January 2, 2007
Happy New Year - 2007
Happy new year to all of you! I wish an expanded and prosperous 12 months. And, well...lets see what the markets say to you this year. The pundits and gurus have made projections, some of which i will post with comments on this blog (copyright herein observered)......
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)