Bullish about Sudan

I last posted a comment on these pages sounding overly optimistic about Sudan. Well, released export figures for Uganda show that Sudan rose to our second biggest market in 2006. Exports to Sudan were US$ 91.7 million, second to the United Arab Emirates which grew to US$ 186 million.

Rwanda (US$ 30.5 million), DRC (US$ 44.8 million) and Burundi (US$ 20 million) continued to grow in 2006.

Kenya, traditionally our largest trading partner, came in third with US$ 88 million. For the first time in the last 5 years, the top 3 export destinations are not in the EU.

This speaks volumes about market shifts, and trends in the short to medium term. However, putting this bonanza into perspective reveals that this growth in earnings may not translate into expanded production capacity to meet this huge demand.

This is not good for the economy in general. I will return to these pages with an analysis on whether imports from the region are growing anyway. (The last time I checked, we had a whooping US$ 450 million import value from Kenya)

Most consumer goods hitting the South Sudanese markets are imports which are then re-exported. However, some home grown industries like cement, building materials, metal products, soft beverages, sugar and confectioneries, will find they have to respond to this by growing their production capacity to meet this burgeoning demand, this despite power shortages back home.